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The Suicide Wall Street's

I must confess that I am very ordinary: My favorite author is a bestselling scribe Michael Lewis and his two books, "Liar's Poker" and "The Big Short".

• "Liar's Poker" is about life in investment banks on Wall Street in the Eighties. The reader is shocked by a surreal culture of greed. The stories are told but they still are very humorous and entertaining.
• "The Big Short" tells the story of Wall Street geeks who bet against the system and high gain. Wall Street's greed and the left still significantly increase: A bond dealer complained, although his bonus was $ 47 million.

in a Bloomberg TV interview on YouTube predicting an end to Michael Lewis of the Wall Street business model, should the anger of the electorate to find their way into politics.


exercise investment banks as intermediaries for their customers and are trying at the same time to realize a quick profit by breaking down trade positions against the same customers on or off. A massive conflict of interest is the result. Maybe in the future, these two activities will be separated: cheap online broker on one side and hedge Funds on the other side.

A very exciting and entertaining film is "Enron: The Smartest Guys in the Room" , although the story had been in years. Here's the trailer:





For avid readers who are interested in historical speculative bubbles is "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" recommended . 400 years in a book madness!

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Chinese debt and excess capacity

The last post I wrote about China's high debt and excess capacity. I must confess that I was not much convinced by my argument, so I is investigating a little further. Morgan Stanley's Wang Qing, on 31 March written 2010 on the debt:

China's total debt is low at 170% of GDP compared with developed countries in the total debt of 250% -500%. Next is the external debt relevant because national debt can be offset with the national assets. China has the lowest external debt of the world . Although the ability to generate cash flows, etc. is considered, can be identified no systemic risk. However, the opacity of some local banks in the quality of its loan portfolio, which puts a damper on stock prices.

Regarding excess capacity, it is clear that these are made in real estate and heavy industry. I doubt, however, that these sectors can drag the economy into the abyss. Moreover, the recent interest rate hikes introduced to limit the growth in capacity.

On 22 October 2010 preconceived Gregory Peters and Jason Draho the situation is as follows: The quantitative easing supports risk-taking: Buy the U.S. dollar and buying preference shares of Emerging Markets.

is again: Do not fight the Fed!

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overcapacity in China

have in recent days, I read an interview on Businessinsider.com and presentation by Vitaliy Katsenelson. Although Vitaly's presentation seems to knit, I have to keep it good that he made me doubt the basic chinesesischen investment case

• overcapacity : Due the partially centrally planned economy of China (with a huge bureaucratic apparatus) was overcapacity in the property sector (commercial and residential) and built in heavy industries such as cement and steel. The stimulus program after the financial crisis in addition to increased capacity.
• debt overhang : lots of money (in the form of loans) will be distributed in accordance with the Politikauf the local level. The stimulus program increased the debt in addition
• Impact on the Chinese economy. Due to high fixed costs (depreciation and debt service) is likely to suffer the national economy strong.
  
• International Impact: raw material suppliers such as Australia, Brazil and Russia will feel the impact most.
  

But do not, fight the Fed. Despite this gloomy picture, the planned quantitative easing in the U.S. will help ensure that this bubble will not burst in the short term. Of course this approach the risk of a missed exit is inherent.

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inflation and stock returns

investors who want to protect it from inflation Aktienegagement be disappointed by the graphics of www.businessinder.com :

Experienced and value investors who follow the classic Benjamin Graham (as WE buffet) to know this connection long ago.