BCA's Arthur Budaghyan made yesterday in a presentation of the Chinese real estate market and its impact following on emerging markets stocks key messages:
The recovery of the last 2 years has been driven by Chinese economic stimulation of the real estate market. homes rose out again by 45% although the real estate boom has gone on 12th The Chinese government now seems to be worried and tried to prevent overheating by increasing interest rates. End of 2007 increased the Chinese government, interest on the same basis with the result that raw materials (highly correlated with emerging countries) and emerging market shares six months later (usual time lag of monetary policy) massively invaded (June 2008).
Arthur believes will be only a short-term bull market QE2 effect of 3 months and then collapse the markets.
Another indicator of the increased IPO Tätigket the commodities trader Glencore as (recall the IPO of Goldman Sachs, Blackstone, 1999 or 2007).
adjacent graph clearly shows further how much the volume of trade due to large capital inflows and undifferentiated purchases exploded.
addition, advanced raw materials in USD but not in CHF or JPY (defensive currencies). A sign of the weakness of the USD and the non-confirmation of a strong emerging market growth.
The preferred asset class is, therefore, liquidity. Arthur does not believe also that the resources of the QE2 will flow into the real economy, which is consistent with a deflationary scenario and is a stable dollar.
0 comments:
Post a Comment